New Poll Shows Trump, Harris Surge in Battleground States

The 2024 presidential election has been an unconventional election cycle to say the least. On the eve of Election Night, we are no closer to estimating who has the advantage heading into the election. New data from the New York Times shows that President Donald Trump (R) has gained support in Pennsylvania, but Vice President Kamala Harris (D) has also gained support in North Carolina and Georgia. The 2024 presidential election remains close, and the candidates are making their final pitches.

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between October 24^th and November 2^nd, Vice President Harris leads in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia; President Trump leads in Arizona; and both candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The poll surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the battleground states as both candidates aggressively campaign for support.

States like Florida and Texas have decidedly voted red in previous elections. Despite efforts from the Democratic Party to mobilize support, both states are expected to go to President Trump. However, in Texas, historically blue areas in Texas appear to be shifting red as Election Day draws closer.

Texas' Rio Grande Valley, which is composed of Starr, Hidalgo, Willacy, Zapata, and Cameron, heavily backed Secretary Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. However, in the 2020 presidential election, President Trump gained a significant amount of support in all five counties. He also won Zapata county, which marks the first time that Zapata has gone red in 100 years.

Zapata County Republican Chair Jennifer Thatcher (R) recently discussed the support that President Trump is receiving, noting that voters want "change." "Everybody's tired of the same thing, you know, the same empty promises and nothing getting done," Chair Zapata commented.

Zapata County, which is 94% Hispanic, voted favorably for Secretary Clinton in 2016. President Trump received 32% of the vote compared to Secretary Clinton's 65%. However, in 2020, President Trump picked up 1,000 voters, giving him a boosted support of 47% to President Joe Biden's (D) 53%.