New Poll Shows Tight GOP Senate Race

A new poll from the University of Houston and Texas Southern University shows the Texas Republican Senate primary tightening as Senator John Cornyn (R) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are neck-and-neck for the GOP nomination.

The YouGov online survey of 1,183 registered voters, which was conducted between September 19^th and October 1^st, found that the upcoming 2026 could offer Democrats a shot at the Senate seat as they are polling higher than expected.

Senator Cornyn, who trailed Attorney General Paxton by an average of four points in previous polls, has now surged in support.

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R), who announced his candidacy earlier this month, captured 22% of the Republican primary vote. On the other hand, Attorney General Paxton leads Senator Cornyn narrowly among GOP voters who see him more favorably than the incumbent Senator.

Across the aisle, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D), who is rumored to be launching a senatorial bid, leads the field of Democrats with 31%. State Rep. James Talarico (D) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) are both tied at 25%, and former Rep. Colin Allred (D) is in last place with 13%.

While former Rep. Allred is in last place, he is still in a virtual tie with both Senator Cornyn and Attorney General Paxton when it comes to general-election matchups.

State Rep. Talarico, who has gained significant support as of late, trails each Republican by only three points, which is a result just outside the poll’s margin of error.

The survey shows a shift in voter sentiment across the Lonestar state.

President Donald Trump (R) remains the most popular Republican among GOP voters with 87% favorability, but more Texans view him unfavorably with 52%. Governor Greg Abbott (R) is viewed favorably with 84%.

President Trump has not endorsed a candidate in the Senate race despite Rep. Hunt’s candidacy. Rep. Hunt has been closely aligned with the President, and he has presented himself as the "America First" candidate.