Population Projections Show Texas Growth Increasingly Driven by Migration

New population projections from the Texas Demographic Center at The University of Texas at San Antonio show that Texas' long-term population growth will rely increasingly on migration as fertility rates decline and the population continues to age.

The "Vintage 2024 Population Projection," presented on Oct. 22, outlines low, mid, and high migration scenarios for the state through 2026. Under the mid-migration scenario, Texas's population is projected to grow from 31.2 million in 2024 to approximately 42.6 million by 2060.

The updated estimates are slightly lower than previous projections, primarily due to a sharper-than-expected decline in fertility. Although Texas maintains a fertility rate higher than the national average, it has remained below the replacement rate since 2011.

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, the state's fertility rate was 1.78 in 2020, well below the 2.1 needed to sustain population levels without migration.

As a result, future population growth will be driven largely by domestic and international migration. Without continued migration into Texas, the population would gradually decline.

The projections also highlight significant regional disparities. Growth is expected to remain concentrated in the Texas Triangle, including the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas, with suburban counties seeing the fastest increases.

Meanwhile, many rural counties, particularly in West Texas, are projected to continue losing population.

In addition, Texas's population is aging rapidly. Residents aged 65 and older are expected to become the fastest-growing demographic group accounting for roughly 22% of the population by 2060. This shift has implications fo healthcare, workforce participaiton, housing, and public services.

State and local officials rely on these projections for long-term planning related to infrastructure, water resources, transportation, and housing.

These findings underscore the lasting effects of the 2020 Census undercount which may continue to influence funding and representation decisons, with approximately 1.92% of the Texas population being missed.