Libertarian Vote Share Could Shape Texas Senate Outcome

While Republicans have yet to choose a candidate for the Texas U.S. Senate race, polls are already showing that the Libertarian camp is gaining support.

In a new Impact Research poll, state Rep. James Talarico (D-TX) leads both incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Libertarian Ted Brown, who challenged Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2024, is polling higher than expected.

In a matchup between state Rep. Talarico and Senator Cornyn, Brown polls at 7%; in a matchup between state Rep. Talarico and Attorney General Paxton, Brown polls at 5%.

In both races, state Rep. Talarico polls highest at 43% and 44%, respectively, compared with Senator Cornyn and Attorney General Paxton, who poll at 41% and 43%, respectively.

In an interview last year with Texas Politics, Brown commented on the level of support he would like to see alternative candidates such as himself receive to expand the political dialogue.

“We get a small percentage of the vote,” he said. “If we got a larger percentage of the vote, that would be a tipoff to the power structure that they really need to change things.”

Ideally, he explained, “the tipping point is probably 5% to 10% of the vote,” noting that “if third-party alternatives can get that kind of percentage, then that might start tipping the scales.”

Finding himself within that range, Brown said election day is what he is focused on because he has seen these numbers before.

In a statement to Texas Politics, Brown commented that “alternative party candidates often poll higher in the months before the election than we get in the actual voting,” adding, “I was polling like this in 2024, but then it was at 2.4% in November.”

“I hope more voters will be frustrated with the corrupt two-party stranglehold on political powers in 2026 and look for true alternatives,” he said. “If I actually win over 5%, plus am way over the difference between the R & D candidates, then there may be some changes in the works.”

The poll notes that “Paxton is viewed unfavorably by an 18-point margin (37% favorable / 55% unfavorable) and Cornyn is even more disliked, with voters rating him negatively by 33 points (27% favorable / 60% unfavorable).” Moreover, both Senator Cornyn and Attorney General Paxton are “significantly more disliked than Ted Cruz, whose favorability is only 5 points underwater in this poll (47% favorable / 52% unfavorable).”

Despite the results, “likely Republican primary voters strongly prefer Paxton over Cornyn.”

Republican voters will choose a candidate in a runoff election on May 26, 2026. Once the nominee is selected, the three-way race will be more clearly defined.

“My main goal is to promote liberty-oriented solutions to the nation’s problems, something we don’t see much of from the Rs and Ds,” Brown said. “They always want to control people in some fashion.”