James Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Ken Paxton in Texas Senate Poll

A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race.

Republican candidates maintain leads in other major statewide races, though several contests remain within single digits.

Talarico leads Paxton in Senate race.

The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows Talarico leading AG Paxton 42% to 39% among Texas voters.

Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3%, while 14% of voters said they had no preference.

The Senate race remains closely contested within the poll's margin of error at plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

Abbott maintains lead over Hinojosa.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 45% to 40% in the gubernatorial trial ballot.

Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon received 3% while 2% selected someone else and 10% remained undecided or did not express an opinion.

Abbott previously won reelection in 2022 with 54.8% of the vote compared with Beto O'Rourke's 43.9%.

Republicans lead other statewide races.

Republican candidates also hold single-digit advantages in other statewide contests.

• Lt. Governor: Dan Patrick 42%, Vikki Goodwin 35%
• Attorney General: Mayes Middleton 40%, Nathan Johnson 35%
• Comptroller: Don Huffines 40%, Sarah Eckhardt 34%

Republicans also led in generic congressional and legislative ballots, with Republican candidates ahead 48% to 44% for Congress and 49% to 43% for the Texas Legislature.

The poll was conducted August 5-13, 2026, among 1,200 registered Texas voters through YouGov. The results indicate that while republicans maintain advantages in most statewide races, the Senate contest between Talarico and Paxton remains particularly competitive.

The Bottom Line

The UT/Texas Politics Project poll shows a tight Texas Senate race, with Talarico holding a three-point advantage over Ken Paxton. Republicans continue to lead other major statewide contests, but several races remain within the poll's margin of error as the 2026 election approaches.