New Report Projects $12.6 Billion in Texas Health and Food Aid Losses

A newly released FWD.us report projects Texas could lose $12.6 billion in federal health care and food assistance funding by 2029 as federal spending shifts toward immigration enforcement.

What does the report find?

FWD.us released its report, "Cutting Health Care, Supercharging ICE," examining the effects of recent federal budget changes on health care, food assistance and immigration enforcement.

The organization projects Texas will lose an estimated $12.6 billion in federal funding for Medicaid, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and Affordable Care Act subsidies by 2029, even after accounting for funds from the Rural Health Transformation Program (RHTP).

The report projects that 1.38 million additional Texans could become uninsured after enhanced ACA subsidies expire. It also reports nearly 652,000 fewer Texans receiving SNAP assistance and nearly 236,000 fewer people enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP compared with 2025.

How could Texas health care be affected?

FWD.us reports that 15 Texas hospitals and medical facilities have closed or are closing and projects the state could lose 56,300 health care jobs as a result of ACA and Medicaid changes, even after accounting for RHTP funding.

FWD.us Vice President of Research and Policy Felicity Rose, who authored the report, said the projected losses demonstrate the potential impact of the federal funding changes on Texas families and communities.

Felicity Rose: "The scale of what Texas stands to lose is staggering: $12.6 billion in federal funding, nearly 1.4 million additional people projected to become uninsured, tens of thousands of health care jobs, and critical food assistance for hundreds of thousands of Texans."

How is immigration enforcement funding changing?

The report says the Department of Homeland Security has spent more than $189 million expanding ICE detention capacity in Texas. As of July, FWD.us reported 139 ICE detention facilities in the state, holding an average of more than 17,000 people daily. The organization also reported 142,488 immigrant arrests in Texas since Jan. 20, 2025.

Nationally, FWD.us says the reconciliation bills directed $113 billion to ICE, including funding for nearly 100,000 detention beds and approximately 14,600 additional officers and staff.

The Bottom Line

FWD.us projects significant reductions in federal health care and food assistance funding for Texas as federal spending on immigration enforcement expands, estimating $12.6 billion in lost federal funding by 2029.