New Texas Poll Shows James Talarico With Narrow Lead Over Paxton

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D) holds a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a new Texas U.S. Senate poll, with the race tightening when undecided voters are asked to choose a candidate.

The September Lone Star Poll from BIG DATA POLL found Talarico leading Paxton 43.6% to 39.3% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Talarico led 44.6% to 41.6%.

When undecided voters were asked which candidate they were leaning toward, Talarico's advantage narrowed to 46.4% to 43.8% among registered voters and 46.8% to 44.9% among likely voters. BIG DATA POLL said undecided likely voters broke toward Paxton in the leaner results.

Among likely voters who said they were most certain to vote, Paxton held a 46.7% to 46.5% edge. He also led among voters who described themselves as extremely enthusiastic about voting, 48.2% to 47.5%.

Talarico had a larger advantage among voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election but now indicated a preference in the Senate race. The poll found Talarico with 15.6% support among those voters compared with 4.9% for Paxton.

BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said Republicans have increased spending in the race in recent weeks after being outspent before Labor Day. He also pointed to uncertainty among voters over both candidate preference and whether they will participate.

"That said, Attorney General Paxton is not suffering from base depression as badly as other Republican candidates in various states," said Baris.

The Public Polling Project surveyed 793 registered voters and 698 likely voters from September 24-26. The results were weighted for sex, age, race, ethnicity, education, and geography, with a ±4 percentage-point sampling error for both samples.