Poll Finds Talarico and Paxton Tied in Texas Senate Race

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are tied at 45% support in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a UMass Lowell/YouGov poll released Thursday.

The poll surveyed 850 likely Texas voters from September 18 through September 28 and carried an adjusted margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Seven percent of respondents were undecided in the Senate race, while 2% supported Libertarian candidate Ted Brown, 1% chose another candidate, and 1% said they would not vote.

"The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn't yet have a law degree, and James Talarico wasn't even born," said John Cluverius, director of survey research at UMass Lowell's Center for Public Opinion. "With the race tied, anything can happen between now and the election."

AG Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) in the Republican primary runoff in May. Cornyn's seat has been held by Republicans since 1988. Talarico's election would give Democrats a chance to win a seat in the closely divided U.S. Senate.

The survey also found Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by four percentage points in the governor's race.

In the governor's race, Abbott received 48% support, compared with 44% for Hinojosa. Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon received 1%, while 6% were undecided and 1% said they would not vote. Abbott has served as governor since 2015.

The poll's results represent a snapshot of likely voters' preferences during the September field period, rather than a prediction of the November election outcome.