New Republican Polling Memo Breathes Life Into Cornyn Campaign

A Republican polling memo shows that incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R) has gained traction in his primary race against Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

The memo, which was obtained by POLITICO, and which was circulated by the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) on August 26, frames Attorney General Paxton as a “weak candidate who puts the Senate seat at risk in a general election.” It also urges donors to step up funding for the incumbent senator.

Despite the reported surge, recent polling paints a different picture.

SLF’s survey from August 17^th to the 19^th shows Senator Cornyn trailing Attorney General Paxton by 8 points, which is a significant improvement from May, when he was down by 16 points.

Public polls from Texas Southern University, Emerson College, and Echelon Insights similarly show the attorney general holding a 5-to-8-point edge.

“Senator John Cornyn’s path to re-election has never been stronger, and we’re fully committed to supporting him as he fights for President Trump and Texas in the U.S. Senate,” said SLF spokesperson Chris Gustafson. He contrasted Senator Cornyn’s “proven record” with what he called the attorney general’s “disgraceful lack of integrity.”

Attorney General Paxton, who prides himself on being a staunch MAGA ally, has faced numerous controversies in recent weeks. Most notably the announcement of his divorce because of alleged infidelity.

The memo doubles as a plea for resources, noting that Senator Cornyn’s “conservative image” needs restructuring after backlash over his bipartisan work on gun safety legislation following the Uvalde shooting. A June poll showed MAGA-aligned Republicans still heavily favor his senatorial rival.

Given the GOP infighting, Democrats see an opportunity to turn the seat blue.

“Republicans are dumping tens of millions of dollars into Texas and calling the race a ‘f–ing disaster,’” said Maeve Coyle of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, arguing it will leave the eventual nominee “badly damaged.”