If Cornyn Can’t Gain in the Polls, Is Cornyn Canned?

Since Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) announced his candidacy for the Texas Senate, Senator John Cornyn (R) has struggled in the polls. To pull him out of the political slump, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) has vowed to help the incumbent senator gain a better footing in the race.

According to a recent SLF presentation, Senator Cornyn trails Attorney General Paxton by 17 points in an average of 13 public and private polls from the first half of 2025.

The presentation highlights a major hurdle: 58% of Republican primary voters don’t believe Senator Cornyn is conservative, with nearly 40% labeling him “moderate” and 19% calling him liberal. By contrast, 47% view Attorney General Paxton as “very conservative.”

The SLF calls this perception gap the “[m]ost pressing problem.”

In the presentation, Senator Cornyn defeats former Rep. Colin Allred (D) by six points, and Attorney General Paxton trails Rep. Allred by one point.

Chris Gustafson, a spokesperson for SLF, commented that SLF is committed to backing Senator Cornyn and that they “will continue to educate voters on his conservative record.” “Ken Paxton’s toxic record only takes resources away from growing the Senate majority,” he added.

Senator Cornyn, who has served in the U.S. Senate since 2002, has highlighted his support for President Donald Trump (R) as he vies for the president’s endorsement. However, the incumbent senator angered Texas conservatives after he co-sponsored a bipartisan gun safety law in 2022 after the Uvalde school shooting. He further angered Republicans after urging the GOP to “move on” from President Trump in 2024.

The president has not endorsed either of the candidates, and Attorney General Paxton has landed his own campaign in hot water after facing a string of controversies regarding real estate investments and alleged infidelity.

The deadline to file for the race is in December, and the primary is scheduled for March.