New Poll Shows Cornyn and Paxton Nearly Tied in GOP Senate Primary Race

A new Emerson College poll finds Senator John Cornyn (R) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) locked in a statistical tie in the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Texas.

Cornyn stands at 30%, Paxton at 29%, with a significant 37% of voters still undecided just seven months before the primary.

"Private and internal data has shown positive movement for John Cornyn, and this public poll confirms that the race is tightening," said Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). "As we have always said, when voters tune in and learn about Ken Paxton's record the race will shift."

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, emphasized the importance of the undecided vote.

“Among these undecided voters, President Trump’s job approval stands at 73%, suggesting his endorsement could be pivotal in such a close race,” Kimball said.

Cornyn, a four-term incumbent, faces mounting pressure from the right, with Paxton leveraging his strong conservative base and high name recognition following his impeachment trial acquittal and continued alignment with President Trump (R).

In the Democratic primary, 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) leads with 58% among announced candidates, with 34% undecided.

Looking ahead to the November 2026 general election, Cornyn leads Allred 45% to 38%, while Paxton holds a narrower lead over Allred at 46% to 41%.

The high number of undecided voters in both primaries and the general election underscores the unpredictability of the race and the potential influence of endorsements, especially from President Trump.

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) is paying very close attention to this.