A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey shows State Rep. James Talarico is holding an early lead over Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
According to the poll, Talarico leads with 47 percent support while Crockett follows at 38 percent. Fifteen percent of Democratic primary voters remain undecided, indicating significant room for those percentages to change as the race develops.
"Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The poll also found a notable gender split, with men favoring Talarico 52 percent to 30 percent, while women are nearly evenly divided, backing Talarico at 44 percent and Crockett at 43 percent.
The poll reults highlight contrasting strengths for the two Democrats. Talarico's support is broader across demographic groups, while Crockett commands dominant backing among Black voters, a core aspect in Democratic primaries.
The poll also tested hypothetical general election matchups, suggesting that both Democrats would face competitive races against leading Republican contenders John Cornyn, Ken Paxton, and Wesley Hunt.
In head-to-head scenarios, Talarico and Crockett each trail or tie Republican opponents within the margin of error, highlighting the challenge the Democrats face statewide.
Beyond the Senate race, the survey found that economic concerns continue to dominate Texas voters' priorities, cited by 28 percent of respondents, followed by threats to democracy at 17 percent and immigration at 14 percent.
As the 2026 cycle begins to take shape, the Talarico-Crockett matchup is emerging as a defining contest for Texas Democrats, with ideology, demographics, and turnout all expected to play important roles in deciding who wins the Democratic primary.
