Jasmine Crockett Surpasses James Talarico in Democratic Senate Primary Polling

U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett (D) leads state Rep. James Talarico in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, according to a new University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs Poll.

The survey shows Crockett with 47% support among likely Democratic voters, compared to Talarico's 39%. Twelve percent remain undecided as early voting nears.

Renee Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School, said Democratic voters are placing a premium on candidates perceived as strong advocates.

"Supporters of both Paxton and Crockett told us they are looking for a 'fighter' as one of the top qualities they want in a candidate," said Cross. "Among Democrats, 39% of Crockett voters want a fighter, compared to 35% overall."

The data suggests Democrats are seeking a nominee who can provide an aggressive challenge in a Republican leaning state.

Crockett also remains the better-known candidate, with only 19% of primary voters saying that they didn't know enough about her to have an opinion. She also draws a substantially stronger amount of support than Talarico among Black voters, with 71% to 13%, and among voters who do not have a four-year college degree, with 55% to 30%.

While Republicans hold slight leads in hypothetical general election pairings, the margins remain within the poll's error range.

Crockett trails Paxton and Cornyn by two points and Hunt by three. Talarico trails Paxton by two points, Cornyn by one, and Hunt by four.

"Texas is still a red state, and although these margins are narrow, either of the Democratic candidates will have their work cut out for them in November," said Mark P Jones, senior research fellow at the University of Houston.

With early voting set to begin soon, the Democratic primary remains competitive, though Crocket enters the final stretch with a measurable advantage.