Ken Paxton Leads Republican Senate Primary in New Poll

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds the lead in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, drawing 38% support from likely voters, according to a new survey from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs.

Incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R) follows at 31%, while U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) earns 17%. Twelve percent of Republican voters remain undecided, and no other candidate surpasses the 51% threshold.

With early voting set to begin in just over a week, the poll suggests Paxton is entering the final stretch with momentum. In a potential May runoff, Paxton leads Cornyn 51% to 40% and Hunt 56% to 33%.

Renee Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School, said the data indicates Republican voters are prioritizing candidates viewed as "fighters."

"Supporters of both Paxton and Crockett told us they are looking for a 'fighter' as one of the top qualities they want in a candidate," said Cross. "Forty-four percent of Paxton voters say they want a fighter, compared to just 33% of Republican primary voters  overall who agree."

All three leading Republican candidates hold narrow advantages over the top two Democratic contenders, though the margins fall within the survey's error range.

Paxton leads both U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico by two points. Cornyn leads Crockett by two points and Talarico by one. Hunt leads Crockett by three points and Talarico by four.

"Texas is still a red state, and although these margins are narrow, either of the democratic candidates will have their work cut out for them in November," said Mark P. Jones, senior research fellow at the University of Houston.

With early voting approaching, the Republican primary contest appears set for a competitive finish that could reshape Texas's Senate representation.