A Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate in Texas that once looked like a comfortable lead for Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) has grown considerably more competitive, with a new poll commissioned by the James Talarico (D-TX) campaign showing the Austin state lawmaker pulling ahead, while independent surveys tell a more complicated story.
The internal poll, conducted by Impact Research on behalf of James Talarico's campaign between February 10 and 12 and published Wednesday, shows Talarico leading Crockett 47% to 43%, with 9% of voters still undecided.
The shift is striking compared to where the race stood just two months ago.
In early December, Crockett led by 17 points. The campaign says the poll was completed before Talarico's appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, suggesting the momentum had already begun building before the controversial exposure.
Democratic primary voters surveyed said they believed Talarico had a better chance of defeating the Republican nominee by a 25-point margin, a significant jump from December when he held only a 4-point edge on the same question.
His name recognition has also climbed sharply, nearly closing a gap that once sat at 24 points.
Contrasting Polling
Independent polling, however, paints a different picture.
A University of Texas survey fielded between February 2 and 16 found Crockett ahead by 12 points, drawing 56% support to Talarico's 44%. A University of Houston poll conducted in late January similarly showed Crockett leading by 8 points.
The UT poll highlighted where each candidate's coalition is concentrated. Crockett held a commanding advantage among Black voters and led among seniors and those without college degrees. Talarico held a narrow edge with white voters while Hispanic voters remained essentially split between the two.
With early voting already underway, both candidates are well known among Democratic primary voters, though Talarico still trails Crockett slightly on name recognition, with roughly a third of voters saying they were not familiar enough with him to form an opinion.
The question now is whether Talarico's late surge reflects a genuine shift in the race or whether Crockett's broader coalition holds when votes are counted.
