A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey shows Texas Republicans heading toward a highly competitive 2026 U.S. Senate primary, with Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn closely tied, and Rep. Wesley Hunt emerging as a possible reason for a runoff between the candidates.
According to the poll, Paxton leads narrowly with 27 percent support, followed closely by Cornyn at 26 percent. Rep. Hunt has gained traction with 16 percent, while a significant 29 percent of Republican primary voters remain undecided.
"Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided," said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. "With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May."
The numbers reflect an unsettled republican field, despite Cornyn's long tenure in the Senate and Paxton's strong statewide profile.
Cornyn, first elected in 2002, is relying on his experience and seniority, while Paxton positions himself as a fighter aligned with President Donald Trump's political movement.
Hunt's presence complicates the race, drawing support that could hinder either frontrunner from securing a majority.
The poll also tested hypothetical general election matchups, showing the Republicans maintaining narrow advantages regardless of the nominee. Cornyn leads Democrat James Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent, while Paxton and Talarico are tied at 46 percent each. Similar numbers appear in matchups against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D), signaling that the eventual Republican nominee will face a competitive, yet winnable, general election.
The broader political environment may also shape the primary. President Donald Trump's Job approval in Texas stands at 48%, with 46% disaproval, while Gov. Greg Abbott's approval is evenly split at 47 percent approve, and 47 percent disapprove.
The economy remains a top issue for Texas voters at 28 percent, followed by threats to democracy and immigration.
With no clear frontrunner and nearly a third of GOP voters undecided, the Republican Senate primary is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched races in Texas politics.
