A new statewide poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) is reshaping early expectations for the 2026 election cycle, showing Democrat James Talarico (D) leading both Sen. John Cornyn (R) and AG Ken Paxton (R) in hypothetical U.S. Senate matchups.
The survey, conducted April 17-20, 2026, among 1,865 likely voters, found Talarico ahead of Cornyn 44% to 41% with 11% undecided. Against Paxton, Talarico expands his lead slightly to 46% to 41%, with 9% undecided. Strong margins among Black, Latino, and college-educated voters drive his advantage.
Moderates and independents appear to be the deciding blocs. Talarico leads moderates by over 40 points in both matchups and holds over a 20-point advantage among independents. The poll also shows a notable share of "somewhat conservative" voters breaking for Talarico, with 17% agaist Cornyn and 19% against Paxton.
The data also highlights challenges for Republican candidates. Cornyn at -15 and Paxton at -10 post negative net favorability ratings, underperforming both a generic Republican candidate and Greg Abbott. Talarico, by contrast, maintains a +7 positive favorability rating.
The poll also highlighted statistics from other races. In the governor's race, Gov. Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48% to 43%. Despite the lead, the race remains competitive, with Hinojosa performing strongly among independents, moderates, and younger voters.
Voters identified affordability and cost of living as the top issue facing the state, cited by 21% of respondents, more than double any other concern. Immigration, healthcare access, and economic growth followed behind.
The TPOR poll suggests a competitive and fluid political landscape in Texas heading into 2026, with Democrats making early gains in key matchups while Republicans maintain structural advantages. With a significant share of undecided voters and affordability dominating voter concerns, the trajectory of these races remains far from settled.
