U.S. marketed natural gas production is expected to reach a record 122.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, with much of the growth coming from the Permian and Haynesville regions, and Texas is at the center of it all.
Natural gas expected to reach a record high
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that marketed natural gas production will average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, surpassing the previous record of 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025.
Production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d during the first half of 2026, up 4% (4.6 Bcf/d) from the same period last year. The majority of the increase is concentrated in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico and the Haynesville region of Louisiana and Texas.
Permian region drives growth
EIA expects Permian natural gas production to average 29.4 Bcf/d in 2026, a 6% increase from 2025.
Much of the region's natural gas is associated gas produced alongside crude oil. Higher oil prices have encouraged continued oil-directed drilling, increasing both oil and natural gas production.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil averaged $84 per barrel through July 2026, up from an average of $65 per barrel in 2025. The price remains above estimated 2026 breakeven prices of $69 per barrel in the Midland Basin and $63 per barrel in the Delaware Basin, according to Dallas Fed survey data.
EIA also points to a steadily increasing gas-to-oil ratio in the Permian as another factor contributing to rising natural gas production.
Haynesville production is also increasing.
Natural gas production in the Haynesville region increased by 1.1 Bcf/d, or 7%, during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
EIA forecasts production in the region will rise another 9%, or 1.3 Bcf/d, for the full year.
Unlike the Permian, where drilling is primarily driven by oil production, Haynesville operators primarily target natural gas. Production in the region is more closely tied to the Henry Hub benchmark price.
EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.44 per million British thermal units in 2026, a 2% decline from 2025. Despite Haynesville's high development costs, the forecast price is expected to keep drilling profitable.
U.S. Remains a Global Natural Gas Leader
The United States was the world's largest natural gas producer from 2009 through 2024, the latest year for which global production data is available.
With production expected to set another record in 2026, continued growth in the Permian and Haynesville regions is expected to play a major role in maintaining the country's position as a leading global natural gas producer.
