Election Day is here, and Senator Ted Cruz (R-FL) is attempting to defend his Senate seat for the second time, and the odds appear to be in his favor. He will look to fend off Congressman Colin Allred (D-TX) today in a race that tightened in the final weeks.
Sen. Cruz has never lost a political campaign. And while the polls have tightened, it appears his sizable lead will be enough to get him over the finish line (somewhat) comfortably.
However, Time For A Refresher
Texas politics have experienced a notable shift in the last few election cycles. While the Lone Star State has been historically red, the state has consistently moved into purple territory.
In 2016, former President Donald Trump (R) carried the state by nine points. In 2018, Sen. Cruz narrowly escaped a challenge from Beto O'Rourke by 2.5 points (215,000 votes). Governor Greg Abbott (R-TX) did not suffer from the close Senate race that cycle, as he won by 13 points.
In 2020, there were rumblings that an incredibly strong performance in the Sunbelt from Joe Biden (D) could see Texas flip, killing Republicans chances before they even started. However, despite Biden winning Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, Trump ended up winning Texas by 5.6 points.
Election Day, 2024
That brings us to today. Despite the 2018 scare from Beto O'Rourke, Texas Republicans have not faced much of a challenge.
Sen. Cruz has a seven-point lead, according to the latest poll from AtlasIntel, one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2020 election. The smallest lead for Cruz in the November polls is three points from Morning Consult.
President Trump is also comfortable with a 7.6-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the FiveThirtyEight average, which appears to be on par with the polling in comparison to Sen. Cruz.
In recent advertisements, Rep. Allred attacked Cruz for voting against the bipartisan border bill that was shot down by Republicans earlier this year. The deal would’ve allowed an influx of illegal immigrants into the country through the southern border but provided $20.23 billion for “operational needs and capabilities” as well as resources for the new border policies, according to CNN.
The right side of the aisle did not like the negotiated bill, as some GOP members declared that it would make the situation at the southern border worse.
These moves from Rep. Allred toward the center follow VP Harris’ strategy, as she has also been keen on border security in recent weeks. Axios stated that VP Harris has pledged to “spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the wall” despite her opposition to it for years.
According to a September Fox News report, Rep. Allred told event attendees in 2018, “If they build that racist wall, my generation is the one that will tear it down. You’re not going to have a wall in this country.”
Moreover, in May of 2023, Allred opposed the Secure the Border Act – also known as H.R. 2. This bill passed in the House by a 219-213 vote without support from a single Democrat representative.
In response to the Fox News report, Rep. Allred’s campaign spokesperson, Josh Stewart, said that he is “laser focused” on bipartisan solutions surrounding the southern border and took a shot at Sen. Cruz in the process.
